Cancer is the second most cause of death, one out of three Europeans will come down with it.
The figure shows the disease related causes of death in the U.S.
U.S. National Center of Health Statistics:
652’486 died of heart disease
553’888 died of cancer
(2008, www.cdc.gov)
Switzerland
In Switzerland every year 35’450 new cancer cases are diagnosed (> Krebsliga Schweiz 2008<). Thereof 20’000 cases were treated with radiotherapy (> Schweizerische Ärztezeitung 2009<). This is an increase of 3% per year compared with the numbers from 2008, which corresponds to international benchmark.
It can be foreseen, that for 10% to 15% of all Radiotherapies Proton Therapy will be advantageous, as Urs Martin Lütolf, Head of Radiooncology at University Hospital Zürich, confirmed in Neue Zürcher Zeitung, dated June, 25th, 2009 (>NZZ_25-06-2009<).
This results in a number of potential patients eligible for protons in Switzerland such as 2’000 up to 3’000 cases per year.
Various scientific publications have been reviewed and give reason for this evaluation. The publication of Glimelius et al. (B. Glimelius et al., Number of patients potentially eligible for proton therapy, Acta Oncologica, 2005; 44: 836-849) is still the standard and represents the situation in Sweden. The results of this study can be compared with the situation in Switzerland. In addition studies from Belgium, Great Britain, Austria, Germany and the USA have also been reviewed.
As recently reported in the press, there are plans to expand the treatment capacity at Paul Scherrer Institute up to 400-500 patients per year. Takind this into account, there is a remaining patient load in the order of magnitude of the treatment capacity of the PTC Zürichobersee (>Treatment Capacity<).
Potential patients from abroad must be added here so that full capacity utilisation of the PTC can be expected in any case.
The number of death cases caused by cancer in Switzerland is about 16’oo0 (>Gesundheitswesen Schweiz, 2009/2010<)
Cancer diseases with the most disadvantageous survival prognosis and their death toll are:
- Lung (1,3 Million deaths worldwide / 2’864 in Switzerland)
- Abdomen, Pelvis (803’000 deaths worldwide / 3’248 in Switzerland)
- Colorectal cancer (639’000 deaths worldwide / 1’591 in Switzerland)
- Liver (610’000 deaths worldwide / 552 in Switzerland)
- Chest (519’000 deaths worldwide / 1’358 in Switzerland)
(>WHO Cancer Report< >Krebsliga Schweiz 2008<)
Foreign Countries
The figures of the World Health Organization (WHO) show, that in 2000 worldwide
10 million new cancer cases were recorded. 15 million new cancer cases are forcasted for 2015.
Within the European Union there are 2.3 million new cancer cases every year at present.
In western industrialized countries about 45’000 new cancer patients appear out of 10 million inhabitants. From these patients in more than 50% of the cases radiation therapy is deployed solely or in combination with surgery and / or chemotherapy (>disease and therapies< >radiation therapy<)
Also here for 10% to 15% of all Radiotherapies Proton Therapy will be advantageous.
There are countries with high population and a wealthy upper class but no proton therapy and general shortage in radiotherapy like the following examples.
The estimated numbers of new cancer cases every year in these regions are
- Russia (approx. 660’000 new cancer cases per year),
- Ukraine (approx. 220’000 new cancer cases per year),
- China (approx. 5 million new cancer cases per year),
- Kazakhstan (approx. 70’000 new cancer cases per year),
- Turkey (approx. 310’000 new cancer cases per year),
- Israel (approx. 28’000 new cancer cases per year),
- Iran (approx. 300’000 new cancer cases per year),
- United Arab Emirates (approx. 12’000 new cancer cases per year),
- Egypt (approx. 350’000 new cancer cases per year),
(source: SEER Estimate 2002)
These numbers are extrapolations without country specific sources. Nevertheless it gives a picture about the potential need for proton therapy worldwide. About 7 million new cancer patients will show up in these regions and a potential number of patients eligible for protons will be in the order of magnitude of several hundred thousands.
In the regions adjacent to the borders of Switzerland in Germany, Austria and Italy live about 46 million people. Statistically about 250’000 new cancer cases can be foreseen, about 150’000 will be radiotherapy patients and with the same assumption of 10%-15% the potential of patients from these regions for treatment with protons in Switzerland is about 15’000 up to 20’000 people. At present only one center in Munich offers clinical proton therapy.
It can be summarized, that a proton therapy center in Switzerland most probably will have a waiting list in the near future.